Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x20e4…1b83 sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$46 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%39W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$131
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$62
other 6% +$61
crypto 1% +$15
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +78.3% +61.3% 75% 75% +32.8%
≤30d 11 +30.4% +18.0% 55% 55% -23.1%
≤90d 45 +13.7% +2.8% 60% 60% -6.8%
all 78 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 49% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 49% -8.4%
10% -24.1% 45% -17.1%
15% -31.5% 45% -25.1%
20% -38.2% 37% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses39 / 39
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions12
Markets (closed)78 / 90
History coverage98d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Over 54¢ 100¢ $40 $74 +$34 (+85%)
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Over 36¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 18 $15 +$9 +62%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $5 +$23 +442%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 18 $20 +$10 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 18 $71 +$81 +114%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$68 +67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $61 −$25 -41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $143 −$96 -68%
Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 Apr 01 $5 +$4 +90%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Apr 01 $10 +$6 +57%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 01 $20 −$2 -9%
Spurs vs. Heat Apr 01 $13 +$7 +54%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $15 +$10 +65%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 01 $20 +$9 +45%
Pistons vs. Thunder Apr 01 $400 +$63 +16%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Mar 31 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Rockets Mar 31 $10 −$10 -99%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Kings vs. Nets Mar 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 23 $23 +$4 +15%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5 Mar 23 $11 +$20 +183%
Heat vs. Rockets Mar 23 $50 +$24 +49%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 23 $50 +$33 +66%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bones Hyland: Points O/U 11.5 Mar 21 $5 +$4 +74%
Draymond Green: Points O/U 8.5 Mar 21 $7 +$8 +108%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5 Mar 21 $10 +$10 +96%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 21 $10 +$12 +122%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 21 $20 +$13 +64%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 21 $20 +$17 +85%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 21 $33 +$15 +47%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 21 $25 +$26 +104%
Warriors vs. Pistons Mar 21 $50 +$21 +43%
Naz Reid: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Kings Mar 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bucks vs. Jazz Mar 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 19.5 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5 Mar 18 $5 +$4 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 6m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 26m
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 26m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $41 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $41 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $40 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 48¢ $6 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $29 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $61 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $51 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $43 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $20 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $51 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 30d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 67¢ $20 42d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 51¢ $5 42d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $15 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $5 42d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $5 42d
Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $5 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.31 · official $190.31 (match) · 160 history records