Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20e5…118d other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3492 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$906 (-0%) realized +$3,219 · open −$4,125
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%7W / 25L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$8,074per market
Trades / day3492.0pace
Fees−$1,662est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$124,169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$10,443
sports 33% +$21,401
crypto 2% −$429
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3492 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-62.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -58.0% -62.0% 22% 22% +0.4%
≤30d 32 -58.0% -62.0% 22% 22% +0.4%
≤90d 32 -58.0% -62.0% 22% 22% +0.4%
all 32 -58.0% -62.0% 22% 22% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3492.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.0% 22% +0.4%
10% -65.6% 22% -9.2%
15% ← realistic here -68.9% 19% -18.0%
20% -72.0% 16% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$4,014) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
68.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,498 vs −$2,176 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$124,169
Realized+$3,219
Unrealized−$4,125
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses7 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,662
Open positions45
Markets (closed)32 / 29
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$8,074
Trades / day3492.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $12,752 $14,291 +$1,539 (+12%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 78¢ 78¢ $8,789 $8,687 −$102 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 56¢ 76¢ $5,540 $7,516 +$1,976 (+36%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 66¢ 64¢ $6,045 $5,840 −$205 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 94¢ 94¢ $5,640 $5,670 +$30 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $5,316 $5,424 +$108 (+2%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Sweden 73¢ 96¢ $4,115 $5,379 +$1,264 (+31%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? No 75¢ 76¢ $5,126 $5,161 +$34 (+1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 63¢ 64¢ $4,843 $4,869 +$27 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 72¢ 81¢ $3,789 $4,255 +$466 (+12%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? No 91¢ 100¢ $3,748 $4,100 +$352 (+9%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $3,837 $3,862 +$25 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? No 77¢ 78¢ $3,651 $3,682 +$31 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 70¢ 70¢ $3,426 $3,472 +$46 (+1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? No 79¢ 80¢ $3,143 $3,173 +$31 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $2,502 $2,536 +$35 (+1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 52¢ $2,112 $2,348 +$235 (+11%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 66¢ 66¢ $2,301 $2,318 +$17 (+1%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 72¢ 43¢ $3,594 $2,134 −$1,460 (-41%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 35¢ 34¢ $2,203 $2,108 −$94 (-4%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 31¢ 30¢ $1,810 $1,728 −$82 (-5%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Tunisia 51¢ 54¢ $1,651 $1,727 +$76 (+5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 68¢ 64¢ $1,740 $1,650 −$90 (-5%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 49¢ 46¢ $1,573 $1,501 −$72 (-5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $1,606 $1,466 −$140 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 26 $472 −$942 -200%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 26 $1,046 −$2,090 -200%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2,314 −$2,314 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 26 $115 −$230 -200%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 26 $233 −$465 -200%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $1,698 −$1,728 -102%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 26 $216 −$418 -194%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 26 $67 −$134 -200%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 26 $2,260 −$4,520 -200%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 26 $460 −$923 -201%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $470 −$470 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $581 −$581 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $4,014 −$3,869 -96%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $590 −$590 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,237 −$2,474 -200%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3,150 −$3,150 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $362 −$362 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 26 $355 −$710 -200%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 26 $1,424 −$2,872 -202%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 26 $393 −$787 -200%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27,808 +$24,213 +87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,457 +$3,770 +259%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $11,817 +$3,849 +33%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $14,909 +$14,575 +98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $6,692 +$2,520 +38%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $4,458 +$2,600 +58%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11,483 +$7,960 +69%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17,910 −$23,947 -134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 70¢ $5 0m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 70¢ $1 0m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 70¢ $42 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 70¢ $350 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 70¢ $350 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 70¢ $700 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 70¢ $350 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 30¢ $150 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 70¢ $350 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 30¢ $150 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 70¢ $350 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 70¢ $350 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 30¢ $150 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 30¢ $150 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 70¢ $350 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 70¢ $350 1m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 30¢ $300 1m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $2 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $216 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $3 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $21 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $258 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $229 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $5 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $226 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $30 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $7 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 46¢ $8 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124,169.14 · official $124,170.15 (match) · 3500 history records