Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
20 0x20e5…c62c other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,204 (+86%) realized +$4,233 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$4,002
crypto 13% −$38
sports 12% +$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +22.0% +10.4% 42% 42% +83.8%
≤30d 33 +22.0% +10.4% 42% 42% +83.8%
≤90d 33 +22.0% +10.4% 42% 42% +83.8%
all 33 +22.0% +10.4% 42% 42% +83.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 42% +83.8%
10% -0.2% 39% +66.2%
15% -9.8% 36% +50.2%
20% -18.7% 27% +35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +103% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +103% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$383 vs −$63 · ×6.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$801
Realized+$4,233
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage6d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $400 $390 −$10 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $150 $130 −$20 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $164 +$903 +550%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $810 +$569 +70%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $213 +$1,087 +510%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $327 +$1,780 +544%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$288 +57%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $143 −$140 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $227 −$221 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -51%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$284 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +227%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $113 16h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 16h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 16h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $101 16h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $59 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 16h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 18h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 18¢ $112 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 18h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $215 18h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 39h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 39h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $143 39h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 39h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $801.45 · official $801.52 (match) · 71 history records