Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20e7…0b7c other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$28 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$12
sports 14% −$10
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -12.3% -20.6% 62% 24% -10.9%
≤30d 43 -20.3% -27.9% 56% 21% -12.8%
≤90d 43 -20.3% -27.9% 56% 21% -12.8%
all 43 -20.3% -27.9% 56% 21% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 21% -12.8%
10% -34.8% 9% -21.2%
15% -41.1% 0% -28.8%
20% -46.8% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage9d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$2 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -37%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$5 +13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$4 -64%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$7 -34%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 $0 -31%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $90 +$5 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -65%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $38 +$9 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +28%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 99¢ $40 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 25h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 77¢ $9 32h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 88¢ $10 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $35 32h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $5 35h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 85¢ $18 43h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 85¢ $25 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 44h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $10 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $15 47h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 95¢ $5 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $45 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $11 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 34¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.60 · official $72.60 (match) · 106 history records