Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20e8…8388 crypto 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$655 (-7%) realized −$662 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%40W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$640
7 days+$190
14 days+$208
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$374
other 37% +$324
world 10% −$450
sports 2% −$185
finance 1% +$47
politics 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.6% -5.4% 67% 67% -3.3%
≤30d 18 -4.2% -13.3% 61% 61% -3.7%
≤90d 60 -65.1% -68.4% 22% 22% -36.7%
all 91 -24.6% -31.7% 44% 42% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 42% -16.7%
10% -38.3% 36% -24.7%
15% -44.2% 30% -32.0%
20% -49.7% 22% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$65 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$937
Realized−$662
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses40 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)91 / 97
History coverage158d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $202 +$96 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$191 +47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$139 +69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $252 +$100 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$111 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $150 −$106 -70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $353 −$350 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$168 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 19 $151 −$151 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $342 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $252 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $44 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 5d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14 BUY 47¢ $51 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 7d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $937.35 · official $937.35 (match) · 538 history records