Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20eb…5822 sports 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 644d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$987 (-2%) realized −$935 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%67W / 83L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$864
14 days+$921
30 days+$699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$82
other 20% −$263
sports 19% −$122
crypto 12% −$681
tech 4% −$77
economics 2% −$1
world 0% −$119
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +32.3% +19.7% 50% 47% +2.5%
≤30d 67 +26.9% +14.8% 49% 45% -2.5%
≤90d 70 +24.2% +12.3% 47% 43% -4.6%
all 150 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 37% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 37% -12.6%
10% -19.1% 32% -20.9%
15% -26.9% 29% -28.6%
20% -34.1% 25% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$62 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

644d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized−$935
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses67 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions6
Markets (closed)150 / 156
History coverage644d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $155 $122 −$32 (-21%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 73¢ 72¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 77¢ 74¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$27 +26%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $203 −$188 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $206 −$17 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $202 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $310 −$29 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $203 −$53 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$66 +64%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$68 +66%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $173 +$165 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$60 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$65 +63%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$118 +385%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $251 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$79 +76%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $288 −$3 -1%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$13 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$73 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$85 +82%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$76 +250%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $27 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $219 +$129 +59%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $248 −$27 -11%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$39 +354%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ $231 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 67¢ $202 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $281 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $310 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.09 · official $365.09 (match) · 573 history records