Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x20ec…fa43
sports · 1390 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,435 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,127 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$313
Realized−$7,127
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses730 / 654
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1384 / 1390
History coverage243d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 6 History 1384 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$214
7 days−$32
14 days+$340
30 days+$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Bilibili Gaming 50¢ 100¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 40¢ 42¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 58¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Vitality 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 59¢ 48¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) TheMongolz 39¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Bucks 57¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Warriors (-8.5) Mavericks 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gaimin Gladiators - Map 1 Winner Gaimin Gladiators 36¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Oh My God 14¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Spread: Raptors (-12.5) Jazz 55¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Suns vs. Knicks Knicks 57¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A NRG 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) Hanwha Life Esports 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) Oh My God 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B LYON 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Hornets Bulls 56¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Team Falcons 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 NRG 39¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Hanwha Life Esports 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$13 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$90 +874%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $81 +$35 +44%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$51 +291%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $61 −$26 -43%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $242 −$81 -33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $41 +$4 +11%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $31 +$42 +138%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 −$2 -2%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $61 −$3 -5%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $61 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$30 +98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$34 +165%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$77 +76%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$7 -68%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $20 +$15 +76%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$58 +114%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 09 $20 +$21 +101%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $20 +$26 +129%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $101 +$2 +2%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $61 +$36 +60%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$9 -45%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 08 $101 +$47 +47%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $51 −$13 -26%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 +$11 +106%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$25 +82%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 +$6 +19%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$5 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$1 -12%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $101 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$7,110
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $61 14m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $51 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 52¢ $51 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $31 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 43¢ $22 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 42¢ $21 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $31 7h
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 50¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 10¢ $10 17h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $40 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 69¢ $81 20h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 25¢ $17 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $34 26h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $61 26h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 50¢ $61 26h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $51 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $30 27h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $30 27h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 57¢ $30 29h
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $51 29h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 40¢ $10 41h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 51¢ $30 41h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 66¢ $158 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 18¢ $20 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 38¢ $45 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 83¢ $201 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 37¢ $20 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $20 43h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $20 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +15.2% +4.2% 48% 46% -9.1%
≤30d 155 +7.6% -2.6% 54% 50% +1.0%
≤90d 439 -10.5% -19.0% 49% 46% -23.7%
all 1384 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 51% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 51% -14.4%
10% -19.7% 48% -22.6%
15% -27.5% 45% -30.0%
20% -34.6% 41% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.69 · official $312.69 (match) · 2679 history records