Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20ed…7f85 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,837 (+39%) realized +$2,815 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$864now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$238
14 days+$2,070
30 days+$2,764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$2,357
other 38% +$653
crypto 9% −$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.0% -28.6% 47% 47% -0.2%
≤30d 43 +5.7% -4.4% 56% 56% +30.1%
≤90d 43 +5.7% -4.4% 56% 56% +30.1%
all 43 +5.7% -4.4% 56% 56% +30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 56% +30.1%
10% -13.5% 56% +17.6%
15% -21.9% 53% +6.3%
20% -29.5% 49% -4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$89 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$864
Realized+$2,815
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions7
Markets (closed)43 / 50
History coverage18d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $290 $288 −$2 (-1%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $92 $117 +$25 (+28%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 67¢ 50¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $83 +$67 +81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 −$39 -39%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $131 +$75 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $508 +$534 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $127 −$126 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $131 +$75 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $111 +$44 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$46 +23%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $721 +$1,018 +141%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $132 +$193 +146%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $254 +$246 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $255 +$440 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $152 +$94 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $390 +$323 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $152 +$111 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $228 +$135 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $150 −$145 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $97 +$44 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $92 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$15 +95%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $101 +$51 +50%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$201 +197%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $127 +$118 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $226 +$374 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $293 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 12h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $62 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $127 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $51 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $253 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $131 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $111 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $255 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Knicks 40¢ $132 8d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $254 8d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 61¢ $152 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 8d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $131 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $864.44 · official $864.44 (match) · 92 history records