Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x20ee…f8fa
world · 51 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
−$452 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,510 · open −$3,613
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$5,396
Realized+$3,510
Unrealized−$3,613
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage70d
Avg bet$779
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 5 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$612
7 days+$1,789
14 days+$2,403
30 days+$2,328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $6,903 $3,957 −$2,946 (-43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 44¢ $1,000 $621 −$379 (-38%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $500 $502 +$2 (+0%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $200 $162 −$38 (-19%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 49¢ 18¢ $407 $154 −$253 (-62%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 24¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 17¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? No 65¢ $153 $0 −$153 (-100%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Yes 25¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
Valorant: All Gamers vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs All Gamers 45¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? No 16¢ $1,091 $0 −$1,091 (-100%)
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Dragon Ranger Gaming 34¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Yes 90¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Dragon Ranger Gaming 43¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 13¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage NRG $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 14¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? No 92¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 13¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $513 −$419 -82%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $508 +$146 +29%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $340 −$340 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $308 +$83 +27%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $127 −$125 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $800 +$2,544 +318%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $800 +$212 +26%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $249 +$304 +122%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $162 +$98 +60%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $700 −$15 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 26 $100 +$61 +61%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 20 $341 −$340 -100%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 20 $1,009 +$172 +17%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $31 −$23 -76%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner May 16 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? May 15 $155 −$153 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 15 $900 +$315 +35%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $621 −$496 -80%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $500 +$91 +18%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 05 $303 +$19 +6%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 05 $102 +$7 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $500 +$102 +20%
Valorant: All Gamers vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 04 $305 −$300 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 04 $502 −$500 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $1,718 +$414 +24%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $326 +$24 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1,008 +$125 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $1,090 +$103 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $2,000 +$311 +16%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 28 $1,091 −$1,091 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 25 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs DRX - Map 2 Winner Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $3,049 +$494 +16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $571 +$57 +10%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $2,000 +$356 +18%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $400 +$171 +43%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $6 −$1 -20%
US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026? Apr 11 $100 −$91 -91%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $6,568 +$1,418 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 82% +$1,790
sports 8% −$149
politics 4% −$477
tech 2% −$759
other 1% +$54
finance 1% −$500
economics 1% −$38
crypto 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL No $94 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $200 4h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 14h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $400 35h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 41h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 41h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 61¢ $497 41h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 61¢ $110 41h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 41h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 41h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 61¢ $20 41h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 21¢ $200 42h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG $10 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG $1 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL NRG 25¢ $221 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG $3 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 10¢ $13 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 12¢ $26 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 26¢ $51 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 42¢ $102 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL NRG 52¢ $156 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 33¢ $102 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $140 2d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 23¢ $26 3d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 34¢ $102 3d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 55¢ $101 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $1,000 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY No 35¢ $513 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $300 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +102.6% +83.3% 43% 43% +58.0%
≤30d 23 +16.2% +5.1% 43% 43% +23.6%
≤90d 46 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 43% +1.4%
all 46 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 43% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 43% +1.4%
10% -19.5% 24% -8.3%
15% -27.3% 15% -17.2%
20% -34.4% 13% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,396.43 · official $5,397.05 (match) · 156 history records