Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20f5…d344 other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%18W / 64L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$16
politics 14% −$8
other 14% +$53
sports 2% +$7
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.9% +7.5% 17% 17% -3.3%
≤30d 19 +5.9% -4.2% 16% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 65 -5.7% -14.7% 18% 12% -11.5%
all 82 +0.2% -9.3% 22% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 13% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 13% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 13% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses18 / 64
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage599d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $7 +$9 +114%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $145 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$4 +50%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $125 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 06 $48 −$3 -7%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $126 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 02 $128 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $128 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $116 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $119 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $128 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $242 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $117 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $130 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $131 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $125 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $119 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $7 28h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 32h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 33h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 14d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.56 · official $77.56 (match) · 296 history records