Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20f5…ac30 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$2
politics 11% +$1
sports 4% −$2
other 3% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 0% -9.4%
all 31 -2.7% -11.9% 55% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage460d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $28 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $64 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $62 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $31 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $4 $0 -4%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 06 $7 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $6 $0 +6%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $7 −$2 -26%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $2 −$1 -80%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 17? Mar 18 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $28 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $3 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 36h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $4 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $5 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $23 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $27 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $31 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $9 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.37 · official $29.04 (match) · 97 history records