Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20f8…f1a7 sports 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$219 (+7%) realized +$285 · open −$66
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%43W / 40L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$195
other 5% −$3
world 2% −$9
crypto 1% −$25
politics 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 49% -2.8%
≤30d 83 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 49% -2.8%
≤90d 83 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 49% -2.8%
all 83 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 49% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 49% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 47% -12.1%
15% -27.1% 36% -20.6%
20% -34.3% 27% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$285
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses43 / 40
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions6
Markets (closed)83 / 89
History coverage4d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $40 $33 −$6 (-16%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 45¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $9 $6 −$3 (-31%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 64¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5) OG 92¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $38 +$33 +87%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 24 $100 +$70 +70%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $50 +$76 +152%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 24 $35 +$23 +67%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $74 +$56 +76%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $30 −$23 -76%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$18 +37%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $97 +$33 +34%
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 23 $100 −$3 -3%
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) Jun 23 $21 −$18 -85%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $83 −$83 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$15 +52%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $60 +$9 +16%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $20 −$1 -5%
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) Jun 23 $13 −$12 -90%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $24 −$11 -47%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $30 −$29 -97%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 −$33 -65%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $23 −$9 -38%
Algeria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 23 $20 +$41 +206%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $66 +$25 +38%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $75 +$10 +13%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$11 +36%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 22 $46 −$23 -49%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $20 +$23 +114%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $59 −$59 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 −$16 -65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $28 +$12 +41%
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $50 +$14 +27%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $20 +$17 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $25 +$16 +65%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $40 28m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $29 34m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $26 1h
Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5) BUY OG 92¢ $30 5h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner BUY Alliance Guardians 38¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 53¢ $38 5h
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY 9INE 58¢ $100 21h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $74 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 11¢ $7 23h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Panama 78¢ $68 23h
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY No 37¢ $29 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 91¢ $129 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $97 24h
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? SELL No 74¢ $97 24h
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? BUY No 75¢ $100 24h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 56¢ $50 24h
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 39¢ $50 24h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 85¢ $30 24h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $23 24h
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) SELL shimmer $3 24h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 25h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $83 26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $45 27h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 72¢ $69 27h
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY shimmer 49¢ $21 27h
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) SELL Atrix Esports $1 27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $30 27h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 28h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 61¢ $60 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.01 · official $105.77 (match) · 183 history records