Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20fe…5f55 other 23 markets active 6d ago coverage 646d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$356 (+22%) realized +$350 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$80
14 days+$203
30 days+$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% +$13
world 28% +$334
other 25% −$98
sports 14% +$83
crypto 3% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 +14.7% +3.7% 57% 57% +26.9%
≤90d 10 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 50% +11.1%
all 21 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 52% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 52% +10.1%
10% -24.2% 43% -0.4%
15% -31.5% 38% -10.0%
20% -38.2% 33% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$38 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

646d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$350
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage646d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? No 73¢ 60¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 +$12 +86%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $68 +$112 +163%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $202 +$89 +44%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 10 $165 −$29 -18%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $250 +$159 +63%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $81 +$56 +70%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Mar 17 $41 +$9 +22%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Mar 17 $120 +$119 +100%
Will Trump say "Texas" during the State of the Union address? Mar 17 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $80 +$26 +32%
Will Trump say "Bessent" during the State of the Union address? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Tim Walz say "Abortion" 5 or more times during the debate? Oct 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Trans" during the debate? Oct 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Cat" during the debate? Oct 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Usha" during the debate? Oct 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate? Sep 21 $49 +$8 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 5d
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $51 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $41 7d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $14 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 11d
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY No 73¢ $4 13d
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY No 73¢ $18 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $68 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 13d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $291 13d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 37d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 37¢ $136 75d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 42¢ $50 77d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 45¢ $30 77d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 45¢ $85 77d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $85 78d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $50 78d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $409 79d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $250 85d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $67 99d
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY No 70¢ $21 119d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $21 119d
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY No 78¢ $41 119d
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY No 78¢ $19 119d
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad BUY Yes 82¢ $41 119d
Will Trump say "Texas" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 119d
Will Trump say "Bessent" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 120d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $81 121d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 121d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.22 · official $184.22 (match) · 143 history records