Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2104…aeda
world · 36 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$26 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Open positions10
Markets (closed)27 / 36
History coverage15d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day235.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 10 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 97¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 75¢ 77¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? No 91¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 13 $0 $0 -259%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $104 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $127 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $315 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 29 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 69% −$8
politics 26% $0
other 5% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 4m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 12m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 12m
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $5 26m
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 26m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 33m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 33m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 38m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 39m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 47m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 47m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -6.5% -15.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -11.3% -19.8% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 27 -11.3% -19.8% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 27 -11.3% -19.8% 0% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover235.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 0% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 0% -19.1%
15% -34.5% 0% -26.9%
20% -40.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.01 · official $10.80 · 3500 history records