Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x2106…20ae crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+6%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 88% 50% +1.9%
≤30d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 88% 50% +1.9%
≤90d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 88% 50% +1.9%
all 8 +0.0% -9.5% 88% 50% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 50% +1.9%
10% -18.2% 25% -7.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -16.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×10.15 per $1 lost it wins $10.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records