Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2106…4dea
other · 109 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$428 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,200 · open −$20,999
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 499 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,225
7 days−$1,200
14 days−$1,200
30 days−$1,200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $9,000 $13,833 +$4,833 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $9,000 $4,167 −$4,833 (-54%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $1,661 $1,661 −$0 (-0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 15¢ 12¢ $1,736 $1,477 −$259 (-15%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? No 71¢ 72¢ $1,420 $1,430 +$10 (+1%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 12¢ $79 $1,272 +$1,192 (+1500%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ $147 $1,246 +$1,099 (+750%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 18¢ $47 $1,050 +$1,003 (+2140%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 13¢ 20¢ $671 $991 +$320 (+48%)
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 11¢ $468 $554 +$87 (+19%)
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes $235 $540 +$305 (+130%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $123 $526 +$403 (+329%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 54¢ 52¢ $540 $525 −$15 (-3%)
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $164 $429 +$266 (+162%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 12¢ $107 $375 +$268 (+250%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ $45 $367 +$322 (+710%)
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship? Yes 50¢ 67¢ $250 $335 +$85 (+34%)
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No 59¢ 59¢ $295 $295 +$0 (+0%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 28¢ 25¢ $325 $289 −$36 (-11%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $333 $265 −$68 (-20%)
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes $171 $237 +$66 (+39%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $124 $232 +$107 (+86%)
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes $296 $229 −$67 (-23%)
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $500 $215 −$285 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1,776 +$70 +4%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 12 $50 −$22 -45%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 12 $0 +$5 +1532%
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 20 Jun 12 $50 −$21 -43%
Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +10450%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 12 $51 −$23 -46%
Will Gabriel Moreno win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$52 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 +204%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 11 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 11 $300 −$210 -70%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $178 +$9 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $460 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $8 +$11 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $6 +$9 +133%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $1,000 −$660 -66%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $402 −$324 -80%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Jun 10 $20 +$22 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 12 Jun 10 $0 +$1 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 10 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 10 $15 +$2 +13%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $49 +$25 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% −$15,979
politics 26% −$5,287
sports 6% −$186
world 2% −$659
tech 1% +$316
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% −$335
culture 0% +$9
weather 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $0 0m
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 1m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $0 5m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5m
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 5m
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $2 6m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 6m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 10m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 11m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 12m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13m
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 14m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 15m
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? SELL Yes $1 16m
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $2 16m
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 17m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $1 18m
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $0 18m
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $20 22m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 22m
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $0 24m
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $3 24m
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $0 24m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 26m
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+128.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +152.1% +128.1% 62% 42% -33.0%
≤30d 26 +152.1% +128.1% 62% 42% -33.0%
≤90d 26 +152.1% +128.1% 62% 42% -33.0%
all 26 +152.1% +128.1% 62% 42% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover935.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +128.1% 42% -33.0%
10% ← realistic here +106.3% 38% -39.4%
15% +86.3% 35% -45.3%
20% +68.1% 35% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,718.30 · official $48,073.28 (match) · 3500 history records