Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x210a…937c
crypto · 263 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$126 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$163 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$435
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses128 / 129
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)257 / 263
History coverage120d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 6 History 257 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$127
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $174 $182 +$7 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $170 $149 −$21 (-12%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 39¢ 62¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 +$76 +73%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -77%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $93 −$73 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $120 +$12 +10%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $210 +$15 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $130 −$127 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $115 +$48 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 22 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 17 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 05 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 05 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 05 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 05 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 05 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 05 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 05 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 05 $14 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 17 $7 +$8 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 17 $12 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 12 $1 +$1 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 63% −$31
other 35% −$131
sports 1% −$9
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 6h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 7h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 7h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 39% -19.5%
≤30d 18 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 39% -19.5%
≤90d 46 -10.0% -18.6% 52% 39% -18.4%
all 257 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 43% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 43% -13.1%
10% -27.3% 40% -21.4%
15% -34.3% 37% -29.0%
20% -40.7% 35% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.20 · official $435.20 (match) · 587 history records