Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x210e…3f9d sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-4%) realized −$83 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$45
sports 40% −$16
crypto 15% −$80
politics 1% −$7
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -12.4% -20.8% 27% 18% -17.3%
≤90d 74 -18.7% -26.4% 36% 34% -22.1%
all 74 -18.7% -26.4% 36% 34% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 34% -22.1%
10% -33.5% 31% -29.6%
15% -39.9% 27% -36.4%
20% -45.8% 22% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 47
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage42d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $215 $256 +$41 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -13%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $20 −$8 -41%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $9 +$12 +129%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 08 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -20%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 04 $15 +$9 +62%
Makarska: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 04 $31 +$2 +6%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 02 $12 −$11 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4 −$3 -85%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 +$5 +98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Cervia: Moise Kouame vs Jacopo Vasami May 19 $19 −$19 -98%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) May 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $5 $0 -6%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 19 $5 $0 -6%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $31 −$13 -42%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez May 19 $20 −$8 -37%
Istanbul: Mert Alkaya vs Georgii Kravchenko May 19 $10 $0 +3%
Cervia: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Li Tu May 19 $10 +$6 +58%
Istanbul: Paulo Dos Santos vs Denis Yevseyev May 19 $20 +$11 +53%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Alvaro Guillen Meza May 19 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $5 $0 -6%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Jersey vs France May 19 $20 +$3 +13%
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 80,000 an May 19 $5 −$4 -86%
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be below 80,000 vote May 19 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $25 −$6 -22%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $15 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +20%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 18 $20 +$14 +71%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $20 −$10 -48%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova May 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson May 18 $10 +$12 +114%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $10 −$8 -78%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 18 $4 +$4 +90%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 +$12 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto May 17 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $87 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 16d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Gabriel Diallo 48¢ $5 17d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Gabriel Diallo 32¢ $7 17d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Gabriel Diallo 22¢ $11 17d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Gabriel Diallo 16¢ $8 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 18d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 80¢ $21 18d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 34¢ $9 18d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 17¢ $9 18d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 19¢ $11 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 20d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $45 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 21d
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov BUY Marco Cecchinato 28¢ $10 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 22d
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena SELL Andrea Pellegrino 60¢ $25 22d
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Andrea Pellegrino 36¢ $15 22d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 22d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 22d
Makarska: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj SELL Lucie Havlickova 44¢ $32 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.81 · official $255.81 (match) · 207 history records