Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

21 0x210e…f8c6 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$3 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%8W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day16.6pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+3.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+14.7%	+3.8%	80%	60%	-2.7%
≤30d	10	+14.7%	+3.8%	80%	60%	-2.7%
≤90d	10	+14.7%	+3.8%	80%	60%	-2.7%
all	10	+14.7%	+3.8%	80%	60%	-2.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.8%	60%	-2.7%
10%	-6.2%	30%	-12.0%
15%	-15.2%	30%	-20.5%
20%	-23.5%	10%	-28.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$186

Realized−$3

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses8 / 2

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)10 / 12

History coverage2d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day16.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	T1	87¢	86¢	$147	$145	−$3 (-2%)
First Blood in Game 1?	T1	75¢	62¢	$50	$42	−$8 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics	Jun 28	$189	+$28	+15%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams	Jun 28	$10	+$13	+130%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Jun 28	$50	+$20	+40%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur	Jun 28	$85	+$15	+18%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$32	+$3	+11%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$7	+$3	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 26	$34	−$34	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 26	$64	−$12	-18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 26	$49	+$3	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 26	$9	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	BUY T1	87¢	$97	38m
First Blood in Game 1?	BUY T1	75¢	$50	39m
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics	SELL Washington Mystics	99¢	$147	40m
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics	BUY Washington Mystics	91¢	$44	2h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics	BUY Washington Mystics	74¢	$30	2h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics	BUY Washington Mystics	83¢	$50	2h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics	SELL Washington Mystics	49¢	$69	2h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics	BUY Washington Mystics	29¢	$5	2h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics	BUY Washington Mystics	22¢	$10	2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	SELL Canada	100¢	$70	2h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics	BUY Washington Mystics	60¢	$49	3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	BUY T1	87¢	$51	4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY Canada	71¢	$50	4h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur	SELL Nigma Galaxy	100¢	$101	4h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur	BUY Nigma Galaxy	89¢	$49	4h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur	BUY Nigma Galaxy	79¢	$36	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	95¢	$36	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	85¢	$32	2d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams	SELL	91¢	$23	2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$10	2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$7	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$11	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$11	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$11	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$12	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$52	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$11	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$20	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$20	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	SELL Down	93¢	$52	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.38 · official $185.71 (match) · 41 history records