Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2110…306f sports 373 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$292 (-1%) realized −$301 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%207W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$280est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$255
7 days−$162
14 days+$20
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$287
other 6% +$106
crypto 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.3% -14.3% 58% 55% -15.1%
≤30d 72 -7.0% -15.8% 58% 53% -8.1%
≤90d 372 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 53% -10.0%
all 372 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 53% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 53% -10.0%
10% -18.2% 45% -18.6%
15% -26.1% 37% -26.5%
20% -33.4% 30% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$38 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses207 / 165
Est. fees paid−$280
Open positions1
Markets (closed)372 / 373
History coverage86d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 25¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $16 +$14 +92%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $84 +$6 +7%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $101 +$84 +82%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $101 +$65 +64%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$34 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$54 +53%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$53 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$65 +65%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$42 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$65 +65%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$60 +60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 +$126 +124%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$17 +170%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$38 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $167 +$82 +49%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$60 +120%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $321 −$26 -8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $79 +$6 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$40 +72%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $54 −$4 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $80 +$10 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $80 +$18 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 90¢ $90 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $16 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $84 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $166 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 14h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 14h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 14h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 14h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 14h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $80 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 38h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 38h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 38h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.65 · official $24.75 (match) · 1797 history records