Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2110…5850
tech · 241 markets active 1d ago
2.5score
+$90,005 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$89,952 · open +$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13,509
Realized+$89,952
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses150 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Open positions45
Markets (closed)196 / 241
History coverage207d
Avg bet$2,919
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 45 History 196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,888
14 days−$2,004
30 days+$14,298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,073 $1,083 +$10 (+1%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 65¢ 94¢ $650 $945 +$295 (+45%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 23¢ 64¢ $264 $735 +$471 (+178%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? No 85¢ 97¢ $598 $682 +$84 (+14%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 66¢ 89¢ $495 $666 +$171 (+34%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $444 $595 +$151 (+34%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $498 $570 +$72 (+14%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $543 $540 −$2 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $500 $507 +$6 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $497 $500 +$3 (+1%)
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $488 $498 +$11 (+2%)
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $461 $494 +$33 (+7%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $496 $491 −$4 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $465 $486 +$21 (+5%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 61¢ 97¢ $306 $484 +$178 (+58%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 45¢ 91¢ $225 $455 +$230 (+102%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $498 $454 −$44 (-9%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $438 $441 +$3 (+1%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $412 $416 +$5 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 31¢ 23¢ $494 $372 −$122 (-25%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $153 $316 +$163 (+107%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? No 23¢ 32¢ $227 $314 +$87 (+38%)
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? No 85¢ 93¢ $216 $238 +$21 (+10%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Yes 93¢ 67¢ $326 $235 −$91 (-28%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? No 55¢ 81¢ $154 $230 +$76 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $398 +$2 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $544 +$256 +47%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $660 +$340 +52%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2,928 −$2,928 -100%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $72 +$32 +44%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $590 −$590 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026? Jun 05 $5,135 +$6 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to June Jun 04 $468 +$1 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $529 +$1 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $84 +$12 +14%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 11, 2026? Jun 03 $48 −$48 -99%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $30 +$70 +233%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $474 +$26 +6%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,653 +$9 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 01 $390 +$110 +28%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $504 +$136 +27%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,873 +$640 +7%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $80 +$20 +25%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $113 −$4 -4%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during May 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $430 +$64 +15%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 23 $19,720 −$1,511 -8%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 22 $735 +$260 +35%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 19 $96 +$94 +98%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 19 $1,266 +$154 +12%
Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31? May 19 $470 +$30 +6%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 19 $1,513 +$198 +13%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 19 $585 +$26 +4%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $13,068 +$3,505 +27%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $16,880 +$5,243 +31%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $26,037 +$4,843 +19%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 18, 2026? May 19 $918 +$20 +2%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 18? May 19 $478 +$22 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 18 $13,474 −$594 -4%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 15, 2026? May 18 $984 +$166 +17%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? May 18 $14 +$11 +79%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 16 $1,087 +$131 +12%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 16 $11,160 +$2,410 +22%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 15? May 16 $991 +$21 +2%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 12? May 15 $60 +$1 +2%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026? May 14 $2,090 +$325 +16%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026? May 14 $6,504 +$556 +9%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 May 14 $286 +$23 +8%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 14 $1,413 +$172 +12%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $470 +$30 +6%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 8, 2026? May 14 $1,630 +$102 +6%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $2,381 −$2,282 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% +$88,504
world 10% −$1,118
politics 8% +$3,102
tech 7% +$3,036
economics 5% −$3,368
finance 0% −$274
crypto 0% +$68
culture 0% +$8
sports 0% +$24
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an BUY Yes 12¢ $2 30h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an BUY Yes 12¢ $4 30h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 30h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an BUY Yes 12¢ $27 30h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an BUY Yes 12¢ $8 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an BUY Yes 12¢ $1 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an BUY Yes 12¢ $7 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 32h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $7 33h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $7 33h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 34h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $0 34h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $1 41h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $1 44h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $4 46h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $10 46h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $41 46h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $45 46h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $86 46h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $87 46h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $191 46h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.0% -16.8% 71% 43% -58.9%
≤30d 49 +47.5% +33.4% 82% 45% -1.1%
≤90d 83 +28.4% +16.2% 82% 42% -3.3%
all 196 +15.1% +4.1% 77% 42% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 42% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -5.8% 29% -7.2%
15% -14.9% 18% -16.2%
20% -23.3% 11% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,509.09 · official $13,509.21 (match) · 3500 history records