Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:52:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
21 0x2110…e57f politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$19
politics 41% −$18
sports 5% +$17
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 119 +1.0% -8.6% 8% 4% -9.5%
all 128 -1.7% -11.1% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage112d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $229 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $213 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $185 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $436 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $498 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $250 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $235 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $269 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $459 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $411 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $214 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $244 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $206 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $222 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $472 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $472 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $270 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $226 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 22h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 8d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 9d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 20d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 20d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $228 20d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 22d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $208 23d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $208 24d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $196 24d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $196 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 25d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 25d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $237 26d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $211 26d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $211 27d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 28d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 28d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $185 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 394 history records