Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2114…84c5 sports 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$167,002 (-18%) realized −$175,640 · open +$8,638
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%82W / 129L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,265per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$9,252est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$31,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,581
7 days−$67,458
14 days−$304,934
30 days−$251,010
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$135,100
other 32% −$24,624
world 1% −$11,403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -73.5% -76.0% 17% 17% -81.5%
≤30d 96 -59.4% -63.3% 21% 21% -66.3%
≤90d 211 -22.7% -30.1% 39% 39% -27.6%
all 211 -22.7% -30.1% 39% 39% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 39% -27.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 39% -34.5%
15% -42.9% 38% -40.8%
20% -48.5% 37% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$6,288) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,244 vs −$4,091 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$31,092
Realized−$175,640
Unrealized+$8,638
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses82 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$9,252
Open positions6
Markets (closed)211 / 217
History coverage71d
Avg bet$4,265
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 39¢ 66¢ $11,780 $19,651 +$7,872 (+67%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 50¢ $5,216 $5,268 +$52 (+1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Over 41¢ 100¢ $1,382 $3,369 +$1,987 (+144%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 56¢ 57¢ $2,415 $2,467 +$52 (+2%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 37¢ 38¢ $331 $335 +$4 (+1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $1,330 $1 −$1,329 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4,592 −$4,520 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $7,517 +$1,939 +26%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,839 −$3,773 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2,489 +$1,359 +55%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $756 −$746 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $356 −$356 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $686 −$686 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,319 −$1,319 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,370 −$1,370 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5,073 −$5,073 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5,073 −$5,073 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 21 $4,975 −$4,975 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11,132 −$11,132 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10,105 −$10,105 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $11,403 −$11,403 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 21 $11,178 −$11,178 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $508 +$534 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3,619 +$3,242 +90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $333 +$159 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5,025 +$6,207 +124%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,857 +$2,178 +76%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jun 13 $183 −$183 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 104.5 Jun 13 $254 −$254 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $305 −$305 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 104.5 Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 13 $507 −$507 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 Jun 13 $812 −$812 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $812 −$812 -100%
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $892 −$892 -100%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $813 −$813 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $914 −$914 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Granada CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $965 −$965 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? Jun 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 173.5 Jun 13 $1,624 −$1,624 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 13 $1,625 −$1,625 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 13 $1,825 −$1,825 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $1,978 −$1,978 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,031 −$2,031 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Jun 13 $2,252 −$2,252 -100%
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,853 −$1,853 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-02? Jun 13 $2,712 −$2,712 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $2,324 −$2,324 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 13 $3,042 −$3,042 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 13 $2,936 −$2,936 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 Jun 13 $3,115 −$3,115 -100%
Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,609 −$3,609 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5,294 20m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $6 21m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $331 22m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 50¢ $1,101 37m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $430 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $16 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $507 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 46¢ $2,215 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $665 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1,347 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $298 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1,406 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 38¢ $9,779 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $1,708 4h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2,032 44h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2,032 45h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $528 45h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $3,711 47h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $3,806 47h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $3,839 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2,489 3d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $2,030 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $756 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $11,132 4d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $5,073 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $356 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $686 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10,105 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $11,178 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,091.81 · official $31,091.81 (match) · 553 history records