Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x211c…ef61 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$107 (+81%) realized +$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +233% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +190% what you keep after slip
Net edge+190%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$210
sports 42% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+201.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +233.3% +201.6% 100% 100% +211.3%
≤30d 3 +233.3% +201.6% 100% 100% +211.3%
≤90d 3 +233.3% +201.6% 100% 100% +211.3%
all 3 +233.3% +201.6% 100% 100% +211.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +201.6% 100% +211.3%
10% +172.7% 100% +181.5%
15% +146.3% 100% +154.3%
20% +122.2% 100% +129.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +244% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +233% · $-wt +244% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$166 +324%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $25 +$44 +172%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $56 +$114 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $217 43m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $69 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $26 4h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $26 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $25 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $170 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $5 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records