Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x211c…8501 world 85 markets active 3h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%41W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$12
other 29% −$3
politics 13% −$4
finance 2% +$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +311.6% +272.4% 60% 20% +45.3%
≤90d 80 +18.3% +7.0% 50% 5% -9.8%
all 84 +17.3% +6.1% 49% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 5% -9.8%
10% -4.1% 5% -18.4%
15% -13.3% 4% -26.3%
20% -21.8% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses41 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage95d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? Jun 04 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$45 +1752%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film May 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 20 $87 +$4 +5%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 12 $271 −$2 -1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $7 −$1 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $194 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 09 $103 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $166 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $120 −$11 -9%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 07 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 06 $786 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +6%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 04 $111 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 03 $103 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2 +$3 +131%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $101 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $166 $0 +0%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $101 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Apr 27 $110 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? Apr 26 $202 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 26 $111 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 26 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 25 $4 −$2 -45%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $2 $0 +9%
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $103 $0 +0%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, Apr 22 $113 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $102 +$1 +0%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $4 $0 -5%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 21 $200 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? Apr 20 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 16 $1 $0 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $109 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $48 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes $2 20d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes $3 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY No $2 27d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 96¢ $18 28d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY No 94¢ $5 32d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY No 94¢ $37 32d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 95¢ $37 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 95¢ $41 34d
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? BUY Yes $3 35d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $2 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $2 39d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $77 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $5 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $88 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $93 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $4 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $2 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $7 41d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 41d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 41d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 98¢ $94 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $94 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.82 · official $91.82 (match) · 329 history records