Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x211d…0776 weather 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-12%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%45W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$20
tech 4% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -9.4% -18.0% 90% 2% -22.5%
≤30d 50 -9.4% -18.0% 90% 2% -22.5%
≤90d 50 -9.4% -18.0% 90% 2% -22.5%
all 50 -9.4% -18.0% 90% 2% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 2% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 0% -29.9%
15% -33.0% 0% -36.7%
20% -39.6% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses45 / 5
Open positions24
Markets (closed)50 / 74
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 38m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.79 · official $47.79 (match) · 120 history records