Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2121…ac65 world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$152 (+3%) realized +$190 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%40W / 6L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$89
14 days+$121
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$86
other 13% +$44
weather 10% +$36
politics 7% −$36
finance 6% +$15
crypto 4% +$12
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.5% -1.8% 93% 29% -1.3%
≤30d 22 +2.5% -7.3% 86% 18% -2.8%
≤90d 46 -0.8% -10.3% 87% 13% -5.6%
all 46 -0.8% -10.3% 87% 13% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 13% -5.6%
10% -18.9% 2% -14.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -22.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses40 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)46 / 54
History coverage60d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun Jun 21 $146 +$11 +7%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 21 $89 +$23 +25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 21 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $55 +$5 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 20 $240 +$31 +13%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 20 $185 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30 Jun 20 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 19 $47 +$4 +8%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Trump on $250 bill this year? Jun 17 $18 $0 -1%
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $234 +$8 +3%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, Jun 11 $266 +$24 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $170 +$10 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $296 +$21 +7%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 30 $160 +$8 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Emerson Jones vs Iga Swiatek May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? May 22 $474 +$36 +8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $2 $0 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 17 $82 +$7 +9%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? May 16 $124 +$5 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $85 +$8 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 11 $87 +$12 +14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 07 $93 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Trump meet with King of Morocco Mohammed VI in April 2026? May 01 $42 +$1 +3%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $32 +$1 +3%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 30 $52 +$3 +5%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $84 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 28 $91 +$4 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $198 +$8 +4%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 28 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 28 $49 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 27 $209 +$8 +4%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 26 $3 $0 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 25 $95 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $192 +$5 +2%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $95 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary e BUY No 82¢ $19 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 2h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL No 98¢ $96 7h
Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 13h
Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 13h
Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 13h
Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 13h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $0 15h
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 SELL No 98¢ $17 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 24h
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 98¢ $14 27h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $4 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.49 · official $399.49 (match) · 281 history records