Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2123…bf08 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$10
other 22% +$1
politics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.9% -12.2% 22% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 20 -2.5% -11.8% 20% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 20 -2.5% -11.8% 20% 0% -10.8%
all 39 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -10.6%
10% -18.5% 3% -19.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage460d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $34 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $18 −$4 -24%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $58 +$3 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $82 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $80 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $61 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $42 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 13 $1 $0 +24%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $6.00 and $6.25 in April? May 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $7 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $8 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $10 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $23 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $33 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $28 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $6 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $33 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $26 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $13 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $8 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $8 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $38 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $41 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.83 · official $32.83 (match) · 130 history records