Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2123…27a2
other · 51 markets active 2d ago
5.5score
+$32,804 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27,765 · open +$5,039
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25,159
Realized+$27,765
Unrealized+$5,039
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses37 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage227d
Avg bet$5,958
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 62¢ 78¢ $20,120 $25,159 +$5,039 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 07 $14,332 −$9,147 -64%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $19,183 +$8,873 +46%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $18,523 +$1,759 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 12 $20,499 +$440 +2%
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 07 $17,235 +$1,286 +8%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 06 $16,255 +$980 +6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $756 −$753 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $3,000 −$2,992 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $17,087 +$10,399 +61%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $9,083 +$195 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $8,882 +$201 +2%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Feb 17 $8,663 +$219 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $8,646 +$17 +0%
Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch? Feb 14 $7,615 +$1,030 +14%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Feb 12 $49 −$49 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 12 $7,542 +$74 +1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 10 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Feb 10 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 10 $100 −$95 -96%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $9,963 +$27 +0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 4 Winner Feb 09 $2,429 +$152 +6%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 3 Winner Feb 09 $1,077 +$276 +26%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 09 $7,308 +$74 +1%
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $6,091 +$1,217 +20%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $8,032 +$10,860 +135%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 16 $8,274 +$893 +11%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 11 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 11 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $9,064 +$1,095 +12%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $10,943 +$715 +6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 30 $2,118 +$1,274 +60%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $153 −$131 -86%
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 19 $118 −$111 -95%
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 06 $20,522 +$1,487 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 2? Dec 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 2? Dec 02 $736 +$28 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 2? Dec 02 $623 +$11 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Nov 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? Nov 27 $98 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 27 $7,372 +$39 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 27? Nov 27 $62 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 November 24-30? Nov 27 $96 +$38 +39%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Nov 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5? Nov 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 26 $100 −$5 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 26? Nov 26 $100 +$20 +20%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $196 +$49 +25%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $7,095 +$546 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $39 +$9 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $32 +$8 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% +$7,761
other 32% +$6,084
finance 13% +$2,199
crypto 7% +$1,585
tech 7% +$5,039
economics 3% +$10,860
sports 2% −$604
politics 0% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $83 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $359 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 62¢ $19,678 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $5,186 65d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $99 65d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $117 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $0 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $107 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $234 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $81 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $235 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,200 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 33% -6.9%
all 50 -8.8% -17.5% 74% 30% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 30% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 16% -10.2%
15% -32.6% 10% -18.9%
20% -39.2% 6% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,159.44 · official $25,159.44 (match) · 275 history records