Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x2125…fd1a crypto 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$142 (-1%) realized −$150 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate72%124W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$41
14 days−$40
30 days+$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$145
sports 4% −$1
economics 1% +$7
politics 1% $0
other 1% −$28
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.8% -11.1% 57% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 29 +3.9% -6.0% 83% 14% -6.1%
≤90d 57 +1.6% -8.1% 79% 7% -9.1%
all 173 +1.4% -8.2% 72% 14% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 14% -10.1%
10% -17.0% 6% -18.7%
15% -25.0% 4% -26.6%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses124 / 49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)173 / 175
History coverage556d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $268 $277 +$8 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 22 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $67 +$7 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 18 $200 −$46 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $188 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $292 −$8 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $328 +$21 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $177 −$15 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $116 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 12 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $193 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $178 +$6 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 09 $180 +$9 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 6? Jun 07 $201 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $279 +$63 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $304 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $300 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $164 +$129 +79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $159 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 29 $161 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? May 28 $159 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $158 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 26 $158 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 22 $151 +$6 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 18? May 19 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 18 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 16 $140 +$9 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 11? May 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 06 $136 −$60 -44%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 1? May 02 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $202 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on April 29? Apr 30 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $199 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 28 $552 −$103 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $193 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 24 $267 +$8 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 22 $184 −$12 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19? Apr 17 $183 +$6 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $179 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 13-19? Apr 15 $168 +$11 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19? Apr 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 14 $93 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $80 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $80 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $75 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $6 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $79 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $3 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $74 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 97¢ $74 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $195 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $80 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $41 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $38 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $193 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 88¢ $67 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $188 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $103 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 90¢ $100 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 73¢ $72 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $110 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $101 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 68¢ $64 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 68¢ $0 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $101 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 82¢ $162 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $118 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $116 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.27 · official $356.27 (match) · 633 history records