Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x2128…da98 other 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$101,402 (+14%) realized +$101,412 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%100W / 83L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$4,043per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$458est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$4,481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21,073
7 days−$19,100
14 days−$10,438
30 days−$13,753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$88,568
sports 7% +$7,596
crypto 0% +$1,494
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -11.2% -19.6% 42% 29% -40.8%
≤30d 52 +10.0% -0.5% 50% 40% -23.4%
≤90d 163 +6.7% -3.5% 54% 48% +3.6%
all 183 +8.5% -1.9% 55% 48% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 48% +2.7%
10% -11.3% 41% -7.1%
15% ← realistic here -19.8% 36% -16.1%
20% -27.7% 31% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$6,831) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,889 vs −$3,508 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$4,481
Realized+$101,412
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses100 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$458
Open positions2
Markets (closed)183 / 185
History coverage103d
Avg bet$4,043
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 96¢ 96¢ $4,267 $4,263 −$3 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 48¢ 46¢ $224 $217 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,605 −$1,605 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $626 −$625 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,413 +$87 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $19,238 −$9,619 -50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $9,337 −$9,097 -97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $114 +$164 +144%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $342 −$342 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,808 +$143 +5%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $154 +$314 +203%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,184 −$5,184 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $924 +$445 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,754 −$1,754 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $777 −$769 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $131 −$131 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,434 +$17,988 +524%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8,348 −$8,287 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,036 −$1,023 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $384 −$384 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $348 +$60 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $107 +$178 +165%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,640 +$217 +13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5,018 +$198 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $568 +$82 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $442 −$442 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $157 +$50 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $736 −$732 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $895 +$740 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $360 −$354 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,912 −$5,912 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,967 +$3,633 +185%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,366 +$234 +10%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $337 −$337 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,236 +$138 +6%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $881 +$227 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,310 −$6,293 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $245 +$29 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $158 +$310 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $261 +$465 +178%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $130 +$94 +72%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,657 +$14,592 +880%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $558 +$318 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,453 +$2,226 +91%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $237 −$237 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $635 +$201 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,788 −$2,736 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $165 +$18 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 38m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $224 39m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $2,138 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $482 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $22 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $46 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $67 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $1,517 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $93 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $16 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $16 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $3 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $5 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $2 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $19 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $0 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $5 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $469 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $16 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $12 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $90 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $3 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $33 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $27 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $114 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $3 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $0 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,481.11 · official $4,481.11 (match) · 3218 history records