Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x212b…35c9 sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,278 (-4%) realized −$1,278 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate66%43W / 22L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$456per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$42
14 days+$89
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 22% +$308
world 21% −$33
other 17% +$111
economics 12% +$155
crypto 10% +$286
politics 9% −$1,267
tech 5% +$88
finance 3% −$937
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤30d 5 +27.2% +15.1% 80% 80% -17.4%
≤90d 27 -24.2% -31.4% 52% 37% -17.4%
all 65 -19.6% -27.2% 66% 26% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 26% -13.3%
10% -34.2% 18% -21.6%
15% -40.5% 15% -29.2%
20% -46.4% 11% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$924) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$174 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$1,278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses43 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage238d
Avg bet$456
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $71 +$42 +60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $60 +$47 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 04 $17 +$7 +41%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $159 −$157 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $111 −$110 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 11 $102 −$101 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $146 −$146 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $268 −$268 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers Apr 27 $120 −$117 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 27 $128 +$146 +114%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 23 $11 −$10 -98%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 14 $134 +$196 +146%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 11 $317 −$317 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 06 $126 −$126 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Apr 06 $1,723 +$170 +10%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Colorado Buffaloes Apr 06 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 06 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $25 +$5 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 06 $528 +$72 +14%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 06 $1,106 +$17 +2%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $1,129 +$28 +2%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 29 $745 +$401 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 26 $292 −$292 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 20 $262 −$262 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 20 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 20 $172 +$28 +16%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $1,046 +$230 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 19 $329 −$329 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 17 $213 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 17 $57 +$3 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $1,453 +$9 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Mar 14 $1,690 +$83 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $1,602 +$88 +6%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $1,426 +$176 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 11 $1,393 +$33 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $1,328 +$65 +5%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9? Jan 14 $1,239 +$65 +5%
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 09 $72 −$72 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 05 $1,121 +$30 +3%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $140 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $1,105 +$71 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 03 $983 +$261 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $67 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $71 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $1 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $13 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $1 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $6 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $7 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $9 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $8 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $8 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $5 13d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $51 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $159 24d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 35d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $59 35d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $49 35d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $102 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $146 48d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $41 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $1 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $29 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $3 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $7 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $9 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $1 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $8 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $1 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $1 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $1 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 16¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.26 · official $84.26 (match) · 333 history records