Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x212d…3345 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+3%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
other 31% +$31
tech 12% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 5% +$1
economics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 +2.3% -7.5% 13% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 15 +2.3% -7.5% 13% 7% -9.6%
all 41 +4.2% -5.7% 51% 5% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 5% -6.5%
10% -14.7% 5% -15.5%
15% -22.9% 5% -23.6%
20% -30.5% 5% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×7.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.52 per $1 lost it wins $23.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage458d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $45 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 −$1 -24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $27 $0 +1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 11 $52 $0 +1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 27 $11 $0 +3%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $25 +$30 +116%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Trump x Xi talk before June? Jun 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on May 30? May 31 $25 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 29 $24 $0 +1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 11 $24 $0 +1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? May 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $12 $0 +4%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $11 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $36 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $18 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $21 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $14 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $17 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $8 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $39 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $39 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $39 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $39 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $19 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.72 · official $35.48 (match) · 103 history records