Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x212e…4129 crypto 790 markets active 3h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-2%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%478W / 312L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$86
sports 17% −$27
other 4% +$1
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -5.1% -14.2% 69% 51% -11.6%
≤30d 163 -5.1% -14.2% 69% 51% -11.6%
≤90d 632 -5.3% -14.3% 62% 50% -13.1%
all 790 -4.3% -13.4% 61% 50% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 50% -13.4%
10% -21.7% 32% -21.7%
15% -29.3% 21% -29.3%
20% -36.2% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses478 / 312
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)790 / 790
History coverage228d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 790 Trades
no open positions (146 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +12%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$8 +23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -92%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $3 +$6 +203%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +108%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $1 +$1 +77%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand - Who wins the to Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $32 +$6 +20%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $19 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 13h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $19 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $26 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1820 history records