Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:00:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2130…fb56 crypto 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,566 (-7%) realized −$2,566 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate59%195W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$2,760
other 9% −$53
sports 4% +$329
world 0% −$138
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -7.2% -16.1% 68% 48% -15.8%
≤30d 71 -24.1% -31.4% 52% 41% -28.0%
≤90d 136 -13.8% -22.0% 57% 42% -20.8%
all 333 -7.0% -15.9% 59% 39% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 39% -16.3%
10% -23.9% 28% -24.3%
15% -31.3% 20% -31.6%
20% -38.0% 12% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$70 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,566
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses195 / 138
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)333 / 333
History coverage213d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 333 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $71 +$29 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $65 +$25 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$64 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $106 −$105 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $92 +$18 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $84 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $71 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 30 $69 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 30 $157 −$155 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 30 $67 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $24 +$76 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 30 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 30 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 30 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 29 $74 +$26 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 29 $92 +$32 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 29 $29 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 29 $61 −$45 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 29 $85 +$41 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 29 $66 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 29 $45 −$39 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 29 $57 +$43 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 29 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 29 $21 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2370 history records