Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:55:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2132…7657 world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,665 (+5%) realized +$2,066 · open +$599
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate56%44W / 34L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$606per market
Trades / day57.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$9,732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$387
7 days+$424
14 days+$980
30 days+$1,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$1,833
crypto 13% +$76
politics 1% +$15
other 1% −$63
tech 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -13.4% -21.7% 44% 28% -7.3%
≤30d 44 -5.1% -14.1% 52% 34% -6.3%
≤90d 78 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 26% -6.7%
all 78 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 26% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 26% -6.7%
10% -17.4% 18% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 13% -23.8%
20% -32.7% 8% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
21.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$45 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$9,732
Realized+$2,066
Unrealized+$599
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)78 / 96
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$606
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 40¢ 69¢ $1,003 $1,751 +$747 (+75%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 38¢ 68¢ $748 $1,325 +$577 (+77%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 86¢ 94¢ $1,159 $1,271 +$112 (+10%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $1,039 $1,144 +$105 (+10%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 58¢ 36¢ $1,343 $825 −$518 (-39%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $745 $757 +$12 (+2%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 60¢ 36¢ $1,132 $682 −$450 (-40%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 40¢ 38¢ $693 $664 −$29 (-4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $429 $555 +$127 (+30%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $245 $228 −$17 (-7%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $198 $216 +$17 (+9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $170 $191 +$21 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $181 $73 −$108 (-60%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+154%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $28 $15 −$13 (-47%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+56%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 53¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+29%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 18 $410 −$26 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 18 $5 +$16 +332%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 18 $401 +$7 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 18 $68 −$9 -13%
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 18 $228 −$67 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 18 $1,297 −$177 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 18 $207 −$90 -44%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 18 $37 −$9 -23%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 18 $759 +$55 +7%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $33 +$10 +30%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4,851 +$232 +5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $145 +$52 +36%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,480 +$158 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $43 +$4 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $368 +$137 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $2,565 −$165 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $1,380 +$201 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $1,049 +$340 +32%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $932 −$219 -24%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $505 −$35 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $682 +$91 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $51 +$6 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $135 −$7 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $4,159 +$943 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $6,632 −$385 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1,008 +$6 +1%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 03 $80 +$19 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $62 +$8 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,176 +$88 +4%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $112 +$4 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $171 +$26 +15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? May 26 $11 +$10 +91%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 23 $50 −$7 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $47 +$26 +55%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? May 06 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 05 $387 +$38 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 02 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $161 44m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $46 44m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $8 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 53¢ $6 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $40 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 35¢ $11 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $6 3h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $6 3h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $6 3h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $6 3h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $6 3h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $6 3h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,731.68 · official $9,782.20 (match) · 3500 history records