Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x2132…118e sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$13
other 49% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 57% -15.1%
≤30d 7 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 57% -15.1%
≤90d 7 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 57% -15.1%
all 7 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 57% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 57% -15.1%
10% -26.3% 57% -23.2%
15% -33.4% 43% -30.6%
20% -39.9% 29% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$55 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$44 -73%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $81 +$38 +47%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$63 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $53 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 2h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 2h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 11h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $61 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $58 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $59 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $63 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $163 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records