Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x2134…231c sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+26%) realized +$173 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$103
other 25% +$47
finance 11% +$44
culture 6% −$17
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -9.0% -17.7% 37% 37% +1.6%
≤30d 27 -9.0% -17.7% 37% 37% +1.6%
≤90d 34 +2.1% -7.6% 47% 47% +27.0%
all 35 +2.5% -7.2% 49% 49% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 49% +26.1%
10% -16.1% 37% +14.0%
15% -24.2% 37% +3.0%
20% -31.6% 34% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +85% → late -75% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions13
Markets (closed)35 / 48
History coverage317d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jordan 77¢ 76¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Iraq 65¢ 66¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Senegal 80¢ 80¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 55¢ 55¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 42¢ 42¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 60¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 42¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$9 +344%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Chinese Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
The Masters 2026: Round below 63 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $13 +$16 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 +$25 +152%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $17 +$11 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$21 +140%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$3 +57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 +$54 +344%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$1 +79%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $50 +$85 +170%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 31 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Mar 31 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 28 $30 +$41 +138%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pr Mar 26 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand P Mar 26 $20 +$3 +14%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Mar 26 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Cameron Young win the 2025 FedEx Cup? Mar 15 $19 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $14 50m
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $37 51m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $29 51m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $2 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $15 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $34 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $23 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $22 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 11¢ $3 23h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $5 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $13 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $17 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $7 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $17 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $15 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $6 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 23h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 23h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 22¢ $16 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $15 35h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.86 · official $220.86 (match) · 89 history records