Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2138…b2d5 crypto 113 markets active 5d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$162 (-1%) realized −$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate70%79W / 34L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$55
14 days−$87
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$498
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +7.5% -2.7% 80% 28% -12.4%
≤30d 41 -2.2% -11.5% 76% 32% -15.9%
≤90d 113 -8.3% -17.0% 70% 35% -12.1%
all 113 -8.3% -17.0% 70% 35% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 35% -12.1%
10% -25.0% 16% -20.5%
15% -32.2% 5% -28.2%
20% -38.8% 3% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$68 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses79 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage29d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $307 −$230 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $354 +$27 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $201 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $353 +$32 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$105 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $76 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $49 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 03 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 15 $204 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 15 $227 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 15 $177 +$23 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $202 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $77 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $111 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $57 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $208 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $172 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 440 history records