Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x213a…13df crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +15.4% +4.4% 91% 36% -20.3%
≤30d 11 +15.4% +4.4% 91% 36% -20.3%
≤90d 11 +15.4% +4.4% 91% 36% -20.3%
all 11 +15.4% +4.4% 91% 36% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 36% -20.3%
10% -5.6% 18% -27.9%
15% -14.7% 9% -34.9%
20% -23.1% 9% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$91 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 97¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $71 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$9 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.90 · official $18.25 · 31 history records