Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x213b…33fa crypto 1306 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$90 (+1%) realized +$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate67%877W / 429L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$14
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
sports 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +1.1% -8.5% 88% 41% -10.1%
≤30d 389 -2.5% -11.8% 74% 33% -11.3%
≤90d 1224 -2.8% -12.0% 68% 36% -9.6%
all 1306 -2.9% -12.2% 67% 36% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 36% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 16% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 8% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses877 / 429
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1306 / 1306
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1306 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records