Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x213d…f3ce
crypto · 435 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
−$1,491 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,923 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$99
Realized−$1,923
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses285 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)434 / 435
History coverage286d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 434 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$416
7 days−$463
14 days−$498
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $507 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$100 -94%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$16 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $211 −$73 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $75 +$83 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $106 +$100 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$265 +252%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $610 −$17 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$10 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $3,497 −$13 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 02 $476 −$16 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $3,876 −$273 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 29 $101 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 29 $103 +$58 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 29 $201 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $102 +$25 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 28 $101 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $101 +$17 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 28 $101 +$12 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 28 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 27 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 27 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 26 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 26 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 26 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 26 $103 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$1,822
other 11% +$199
economics 10% −$9
world 9% −$27
politics 2% −$142
culture 1% −$93
finance 0% −$3
sports 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $507 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $507 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $5 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $13 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $78 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $122 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $158 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $75 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $179 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 60¢ $593 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 61¢ $610 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $516 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -22.2% -29.6% 26% 16% -16.4%
≤30d 199 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 56% -10.5%
≤90d 229 -1.7% -11.1% 65% 55% -10.8%
all 434 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 50% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 50% -12.9%
10% -20.4% 39% -21.3%
15% -28.1% 29% -28.9%
20% -35.1% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.00 · official $99.00 (match) · 985 history records