Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x213e…5e0f weather 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,531 (+8%) realized +$2,549 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%124W / 153L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day92.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -48.2% -53.1% 30% 29% -40.6%
≤30d 240 -25.3% -32.4% 46% 45% -8.9%
≤90d 277 -28.4% -35.2% 45% 44% -10.2%
all 277 -28.4% -35.2% 45% 44% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 44% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 35% -18.8%
15% -47.0% 27% -26.7%
20% -52.2% 20% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$74 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$2,549
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses124 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)277 / 247
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day92.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $12 $14 +$3 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 18 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 11? Jun 18 $83 −$87 -104%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 18 $124 −$115 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 2? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 24? Jun 18 $199 −$196 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 12? Jun 18 $301 −$306 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on April 30? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 18 $217 −$217 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 26? Jun 18 $78 −$82 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 1? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 5? Jun 18 $21 −$19 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 30 Jun 18 $40 −$22 -55%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 18 $211 −$235 -111%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 11? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 29 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 29? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 6? Jun 18 $140 −$135 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 30 Jun 18 $123 −$136 -111%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on Apri Jun 18 $145 −$149 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 6? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 18 $33 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 26 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on May 3? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 18 $125 −$121 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $36 +$7 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $96 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $53 +$29 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 18 $66 +$85 +130%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $15 +$7 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $245 +$274 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $66 +$39 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $46 −$45 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $122 −$119 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $202 −$199 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $138 +$69 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $172 +$262 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $17 +$41 +243%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $70 +$78 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 86¢ $17 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.18 · official $34.18 (match) · 3500 history records