Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
21 0x2140…5790 other 228 markets active 5h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10,608 (+12%) realized +$9,776 · open +$832
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%124W / 75L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$15,026now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$898
7 days+$980
14 days−$54
30 days+$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$6,917
politics 20% +$2,160
world 20% −$2,226
tech 6% −$547
sports 5% +$2,034
culture 3% +$985
economics 2% +$651
crypto 1% +$431
finance 1% +$730
weather 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.4% +2.6% 50% 50% +60.4%
≤30d 12 +15.0% +4.1% 75% 58% -2.2%
≤90d 24 +14.1% +3.2% 75% 62% +12.9%
all 199 +20.0% +8.6% 62% 51% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 51% +3.8%
10% -1.8% 42% -6.1%
15% -11.3% 33% -15.2%
20% -20.0% 25% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$284 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$15,026
Realized+$9,776
Unrealized+$832
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses124 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions29
Markets (closed)199 / 228
History coverage268d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 68¢ 100¢ $1,606 $2,357 +$750 (+47%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 52¢ 76¢ $1,600 $2,323 +$723 (+45%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No 16¢ 94¢ $229 $1,335 +$1,107 (+484%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,087 $1,090 +$3 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $978 $982 +$5 (+0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 71¢ 75¢ $919 $970 +$51 (+6%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 72¢ $761 $756 −$5 (-1%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $467 $600 +$133 (+28%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 77¢ 90¢ $414 $486 +$72 (+17%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $433 $472 +$39 (+9%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 50¢ 44¢ $401 $353 −$48 (-12%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ $1,794 $325 −$1,468 (-82%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $310 $309 −$2 (-1%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $294 $296 +$2 (+1%)
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 90¢ 86¢ $309 $294 −$15 (-5%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 78¢ $238 $237 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $254 $234 −$19 (-8%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 54¢ 48¢ $260 $228 −$31 (-12%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 79¢ 80¢ $215 $219 +$4 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 47¢ $260 $204 −$56 (-22%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ $420 $196 −$224 (-53%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $147 $157 +$10 (+7%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $170 $143 −$27 (-16%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 45¢ 44¢ $136 $131 −$5 (-3%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 44¢ 38¢ $142 $121 −$21 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $928 +$898 +97%
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $260 +$151 +58%
Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $1,458 +$125 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $1,159 −$1,159 -100%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? May 30 $1 $0 +17%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 30 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Philip Funderburg win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary e May 27 $131 +$10 +7%
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? May 27 $232 +$168 +72%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 27 $1,268 +$200 +16%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 27 $215 +$137 +64%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 24 $637 −$189 -30%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 11 $1,154 −$538 -47%
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security App Apr 01 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? Apr 01 $106 +$6 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $103 +$17 +16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 01 $144 +$18 +12%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 01 $180 +$60 +33%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Apr 01 $300 +$44 +14%
Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31? Apr 01 $1,269 +$207 +16%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31? Mar 31 $1,463 +$2,272 +155%
Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be below 65%? Mar 28 $71 +$35 +49%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 19 $459 −$459 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 16 $433 −$433 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $847 +$267 +32%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 14 $2,464 −$174 -7%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.2% an Mar 13 $211 +$74 +35%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $419 +$436 +104%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Mar 01 $383 +$43 +11%
Péter Magyar sextape released by March 31 Mar 01 $193 +$59 +31%
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5 Feb 28 $1,077 +$419 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 25 $499 +$353 +71%
Natural Disaster in 2026? Feb 24 $994 +$267 +27%
Will Microsoft dip to $390 in February? Feb 23 $712 +$870 +122%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 22 $460 +$122 +27%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Feb 21 $71 +$103 +144%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Feb 21 $514 +$710 +138%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $172 +$57 +33%
Will Trump say "Please" or "Thank" 20+ times during Board of Peace eve Feb 19 $14 +$7 +49%
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February? Feb 18 $746 −$746 -100%
Will Amazon dip to $192 in February? Feb 17 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $228 +$194 +85%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on February 17? Feb 17 $419 −$419 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on February 17? Feb 17 $132 −$132 -100%
ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28? Feb 17 $42 +$797 +1900%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Feb 17 $1,252 +$834 +67%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15? Feb 16 $124 +$241 +194%
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market cl Feb 15 $2,012 +$1,227 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $238 4h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $980 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,087 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $761 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $311 5d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $48 5d
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $12 6d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $110 6d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $246 6d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 50¢ $409 7d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 79¢ $217 7d
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $410 7d
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $23 7d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $261 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $0 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $0 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $150 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 60¢ $52 9d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY No 45¢ $139 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $263 9d
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $12 9d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $201 9d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 44¢ $18 10d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 44¢ $128 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $68 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $260 10d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $15 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,025.64 · official $15,025.64 (match) · 1229 history records