Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x2140…075c other 65 markets active 5d ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%14W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 84% −$13
politics 8% −$5
other 4% −$30
sports 3% −$25
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -11.1% -19.6% 22% 0% -16.1%
≤90d 46 -14.1% -22.3% 20% 13% -19.5%
all 64 -6.9% -15.8% 22% 14% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 14% -9.9%
10% -23.8% 14% -18.6%
15% -31.2% 12% -26.4%
20% -37.9% 11% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses14 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage604d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $7 +$11 +152%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $36 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 +$7 +79%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $7 +$10 +146%
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes Apr 06 $10 +$6 +59%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $21 +$1 +3%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-03-14? Apr 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-6.5) Apr 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors Apr 01 $36 −$36 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Mar 30 $24 +$11 +47%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Mar 27 $30 +$21 +70%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 18 $26 +$7 +28%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 18 $24 +$26 +105%
Oilers vs. Stars Mar 13 $52 +$44 +86%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 11 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 27d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 28d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $7 28d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 29d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 30d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 30d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 30d
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 36d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $34 37d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $34 37d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY San Francisco Giants 39¢ $7 38d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 41d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 41d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 42d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.70 · official $13.70 (match) · 251 history records