Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2149…c8dd sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$7,906 (-17%) realized +$262 · open −$8,168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,478per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$35,016now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$7,363
other 11% −$805
sports 1% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$90 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$35,016
Realized+$262
Unrealized−$8,168
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6,478
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $38,354 $30,991 −$7,363 (-19%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4,831 $4,026 −$805 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $292 −$91 -31%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,166 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $301 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $154 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $246 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $254 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $319 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $181 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $91 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,495 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $112 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $53 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $213 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $156 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $101 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $75 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $59 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $9,966 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $92 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 32¢ $92 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $199 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 78¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $257 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $9,138 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $472 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6,171 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6,171 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5,122 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,016.30 · official $35,016.30 (match) · 38 history records