Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x214a…9cd3 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+25%) realized +$37 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$55
other 25% +$17
weather 13% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 100% +38.3%
≤30d 9 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 100% +38.3%
≤90d 9 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 100% +38.3%
all 9 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 100% +38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.6% 100% +38.3%
10% +26.2% 89% +25.0%
15% +14.0% 67% +12.9%
20% +2.9% 33% +1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 78¢ 86¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $35 +$30 +84%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $26 +$9 +34%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$6 +59%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $4 +$1 +32%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$4 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $65 21m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $35 47m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 99¢ $35 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 74¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 74¢ $14 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $16 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $10 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $5 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $16 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 73¢ $12 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 75¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $20 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.92 · official $21.92 (match) · 20 history records