Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x214c…eb00
crypto · 802 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$778 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$155 · open −$623
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$842
Realized−$155
Unrealized−$623
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses537 / 245
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions31
Markets (closed)782 / 802
History coverage139d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 31 History 782 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$104
14 days−$41
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 30¢ $708 $351 −$357 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 60¢ $314 $258 −$57 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 16¢ $155 $33 −$122 (-79%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 44¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 70¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 91¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 12¢ $74 $16 −$58 (-78%)
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 53¢ 24¢ $27 $12 −$15 (-55%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 28¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+212%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 62¢ 10¢ $16 $3 −$13 (-83%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $7 +$8 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$5 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$2 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 77% −$657
sports 17% +$99
world 4% −$241
other 2% +$18
finance 0% +$1
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 150 +3.8% -6.1% 63% 55% -17.3%
≤90d 439 +3.6% -6.3% 69% 58% -14.7%
all 782 +2.1% -7.6% 69% 57% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 57% -11.1%
10% -16.5% 48% -19.6%
15% -24.5% 37% -27.4%
20% -31.9% 26% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $841.83 · official $841.87 (match) · 3500 history records