Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x214d…e693 other 273 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 262L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$34
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$41
sports 24% −$20
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$9
economics 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
world 5% −$8
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 273 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)273 / 273
History coverage140d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 273 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $156 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $360 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $596 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $285 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $633 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $389 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $203 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $426 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $208 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $359 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $526 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $211 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $356 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $317 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $259 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $458 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $525 −$4 -1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $369 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $606 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $128 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 5h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 7h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 11h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 13h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $14 13h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $42 14h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $56 16h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 20h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 22h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 23h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 25h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 32h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 34h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 35h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 36h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 38h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $56 41h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 43h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 44h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 46h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 47h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1498 history records