Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2150…eb3e
crypto · 27 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$8
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.0% -1.4% 65% 58% -17.4%
≤30d 26 +9.0% -1.4% 65% 58% -17.4%
≤90d 26 +9.0% -1.4% 65% 58% -17.4%
all 26 +9.0% -1.4% 65% 58% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 58% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 46% -25.3%
15% -19.4% 46% -32.5%
20% -27.3% 35% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 89 history records